Hedging in craps means placing an additional bet that wins when your main bet loses — effectively insuring yourself against a specific bad outcome. It's one of the most common instincts at the table, and one of the most reliably expensive ones. This page explains why, with the actual numbers.
The Most Common Hedge: Any Craps on the Come-Out
The most popular hedge at the craps table: you have a pass line bet, and you add a few dollars on "any craps" (2, 3, or 12) during the come-out roll. Your reasoning is that if craps rolls on the come-out, the any craps bet wins and partially covers your pass line loss.
Here's what you're actually doing:
- Pass line bet — house edge 1.41%
- Any craps bet — house edge 11.11%
You've added a bet with an 11.11% house edge to protect a bet with a 1.41% edge. Even before running the combined math, the problem is visible: you're paying a very expensive premium to insure against a moderately unlikely event.
The Numbers on a Come-Out Roll
On a come-out roll, a pass line bet loses only if 2, 3, or 12 rolls. There are 4 ways to roll those numbers out of 36 possible combinations — about an 11.1% chance. The any craps bet covers those same 4 combinations and pays 7:1.
Suppose you bet $10 pass line and $1 any craps on every come-out roll. Over 36 come-out rolls (theoretical):
- 8 rolls: 7 or 11 — pass line wins $10, any craps loses $1. Net: +$9 per occurrence = +$72 total
- 4 rolls: 2, 3, or 12 — pass line loses $10, any craps wins $7. Net: −$3 per occurrence = −$12 total
- 24 rolls: point established — pass line stays, any craps loses $1. Net: −$1 per occurrence = −$24 total
Total net across 36 come-out rolls: +$72 − $12 − $24 = +$36 without hedge, vs. +$36 − $36 (any craps losses) + $28 (any craps wins on craps rolls) = +$28 with hedge.
The hedge costs you $8 over 36 come-out rolls compared to not hedging at all. You've made your situation worse, not better.
Why It Always Works Out This Way
The core principle: combining a low-edge bet with a high-edge bet always produces a blended edge that is worse than the low-edge bet alone. The math has no exceptions.
This is true regardless of how the hedge is framed:
- Any craps on the come-out to protect the pass line
- Any seven as "insurance" during the point phase
- Yo (11) on the come-out to protect a don't pass bet
- Horn bets "just in case"
Every one of these hedges takes a high-house-edge proposition bet and adds it to a lower-edge main bet. The result is more total money wagered at a worse blended rate. The protection is real — a bad roll doesn't hurt as much — but you're paying more in expected loss to buy that comfort.
When Hedging Might Make Sense Anyway
The math argument against hedging is airtight. But math isn't the only thing that matters in a live gambling session.
There are situations where hedging might be a reasonable choice on non-mathematical grounds:
- You're near your walk-away win number — if you're up $400 and considering one more bet before you leave, a small hedge on a large bet protects a session outcome you care about. The dollar cost of the hedge may be worth the certainty.
- You've made a larger bet than usual and want to take some risk off — emotionally, not mathematically. Know you're paying for that comfort.
- The session is almost over — a few rolls left, and you're protecting a specific outcome rather than optimizing a long-run average.
In all these cases, you're making a deliberate trade: paying extra expected value to reduce variance in the short term. That's a valid choice as long as you know that's what you're doing, rather than believing you've found a way to reduce risk without cost.
The Honest Summary
Hedging bets in craps makes individual bad outcomes less painful. It does so by increasing your expected loss over any given session. The hedge doesn't eliminate risk — it redistributes it while adding to its overall cost. If reducing variance is worth paying for to you in a given moment, hedge with eyes open. If you're hedging because you think it's a mathematically sound strategy, the numbers say otherwise.
For context on which bets have the worst edges (and therefore make the worst hedges), see Odds & Math. The proposition bets that are most commonly used as hedges are consistently at the bottom of that list.